June 2023 Multifamily Market Report

Denver, CO Market Overview

Denver’s multifamily market is experiencing a period of instability; however, there are signs of positive momentum in 2023, as evidenced by an increase in absorption during Q1 2023 and consistent monthly rent gains since January 2023. Despite the recent data, concerns about the impending recession are ongoing, causing individuals to postpone household formation. Property managers are also encountering difficulties in finding qualified renters after the substantial rent increases in previous years. Additionally, increasing interest rates are making investors more wary. Although fundamentals have cooled since the beginning of 2022, investors are still planting capital into the sector, with $4 billion in sales volume over the past 12-month period. Investors are witnessing an absorption slowdown which coincides with an increased building pipeline, setting Denver up for a record number of units currently under construction. Denver’s apartment delivery timeline is expected to return vacancies to pre-pandemic levels in the following quarters.

Highlights

• The current construction pipeline of 35,362 units is an all-time high for the market.
• In the past 12 months, Denver has absorbed approximately 6,824 units, which positions it as one of the leading 15 metros in the country in terms of absorption.
• Denver suburbs with lower average rents are seeing the strongest rent growth. Specifically, South Adams County and East are leading the market.
• Average price per unit year-over-year is currently $319,000.

Rents | Vacancy | Construction

Vacancies in the market are high, currently sitting at 7.7 percent, and are projected to exceed nine percent within the next two years due to the hefty development pipeline in 2023. A persistent shortage of affordable single-family homes for sale in Denver has pushed many households to rent, providing tailwinds to the local apartment leasing environment. Landlords will need to brace themselves for a supply wave that will impact the market in the future. Denver now rates among the top metros in terms of construction activity, with a record 35,362 units under construction. The region’s average rent has risen by 1.2 percent in the last year to $1,840 per month. Rent growth should continue to moderate from the highs recorded these past 12 months.

Sales

Investors have not steered away from investing in multifamily, with $4 billion in sales volume recorded over the past 12 months. The fierce competition for multifamily assets in Denver has resulted in significant market price appreciation. The average market price per unit has climbed to $319,000/unit. Concerns about rising interest rates and the the possibility of a recession may dampen investment enthusiasm. As investors flood into the area, cap rates have tightened, making it more difficult for investors to find yield.

Investors have shown a strong interest in Downtown Denver, and high-quality properties are being sold at a substantial premium.

Denver by the Number Past 12 Months

• Units Under Construction: 35,362
• Units Delivered: 11,581
• Vacancy Rate % Change YOY: 1.3%
• Asking Rent % Change YOY: 1.2%
• Price Per Unit: $319,000
• Sales Volume: $4B
• Sale Comparables: 210